Some Australian political analysis! Fo' shizz!

Five reasons why Malcolm Turnbull might win the next election

1) The economy. Who knows what state the world economy will be in 2011, but Turnbull knows money. He loves it. Thrives on it. When he get into parliament he released his own draft tax package, as a backbencher. I think he's got the economic credentials to stare down Wayne Swan.

2) Clear policy. The guy has very clear ideas about policies he thinks would help the country work better. At the moment, Rudd is reacting to problems rather than proactively addressing an issue he feels needs addressing (although he has started to do that with education). Turnbull has some definite ideological viewpoints.

3) Humour. He's a funny guy. He really is. He had Tony Jones giggling, and the crowd was laughing along too. A couple of well-aimed quips at Rudd and Australia might see Kevin07 explode in public like he does in private.

4) He's a credible alternative. If the voters, for whatever reason, continue their unhappiness with Labor, Turnbull is a credible alternative prime minister. The WA election showed voters will quickly shift allegiances if the other bloke isn't too much of an idiot.

5) He's ambitious. Like Rudd, Turnbull is very ambitious. And ambition means people tend to work very very hard for the things they want. Turnbull's a worker, and he's used to dealing with powerful people.

I watched him on Question and Answer, hosted by Tony Jones, the other night and he came across very very well. He's funny, intelligent, and has clear ideological positions on major issues. He's also a realist. I was impressed with his response that as a committed republican, he did not want to pursue another referendum on the issue until the Australian public was ready for it. While he still clearly believes in having a republic in Australia, he understands that the time is not right, so he's backing off. I appreciated that. It shows a willingness to be flexible, while still working towards a long-term goal.

Now, I'm not saying I necessarily want Turnbull to win the next election, or Rudd for that matter. I'll see which one has the best policies and best team in place when the time comes. I just find it interesting that Turnbull is now a credible alternative, whereas Nelson clearly wasn't.

I think Rudd, at the moment, would win again.