Hung up on you

Well that was fun. My observations:


1) Wilkie is not home in Denison yet. If Jonathan Jackson squeaks home then Labor needs to look hard to what it has done in the electorate to suffer such a huge swing.
2) The Libs' national broadband plan was a loser (I wrote a whole column about it). It cost them terribly in Tasmania, losing one senator and turning two marginal seats in safe Labor seats. Now it looms as the issue they need to resolve to win the independents' support. Abbott would do well to change his broadband plan based on that (and also because his original plan was crap). Unfortunately, the Coalition had banked on saving the NBN money and using it to return the budget to surplus.
3) The result should NEVER have been this close. Labor should have got home, with a reduced majority. That is how politics works in Australia. This result says a few things. Labor have been embarrassingly poor. The Libs have not escaped from the shadows of their past just yet. And the majority of Australians have not yet figured out that voting for the Greens is not a protest vote.
4) The Greens have said they would work with any party to form government. This is clearly untrue. I asked Christine Milne about it yesterday - could you actually form government with Tony Abbott and Eric Abetz? - and she said it was still unclear who would win the election. Picture this: Abbott and Milne shaking hands while Bob Brown and Eric Abetz high five in the background. Not happening.

Still lots of fun to go! Here are some links!
- That feeling you're getting isn't an illness. It's the possibility of a Collingwood flag.

The fear is a reflex. It pierces directly into the soul. It's not a learned reaction. It's innate to the human condition. The odd part is it strikes on both sides of the divide. Collingwood is shaping to win the AFL premiership for the first time in two decades. The prospect unnerves those born to believe equally as those programmed to despise.

- Peter Costello in The Age raises some interesting quotes that highlight a lack of judgment.

"Mark Latham has made a real connection with Australians" and "Mark's the one who is putting forward a vision for Australia". "He's got the capacity to govern".

Who said that in 2004? Julia Gillard MHR. He may be a tool, but he's Labor's tool, and he was the tool they wanted to rule the country in 2004.

- A long but fascinating piece about Jessica Rudd's novel about politics, in which a PM gets knifed by his female deputy. The comments about the Howard family are interesting too.

- Americans don't get New Zealand humour apparently. I can't wait to see Boy.

- Natalie Tran (aka communitychannel) apparently brings in US$100k a year thanks to her YouTube videos. It's big money, but understandably on Facebook the other day she was pretty upset about an invasion of her privacy.

- Don't piss off television writers - because they can get revenge in front of millions of people.

- Back on politics, I loved this article. It's something I've been thinking about for some time. There's a column in it.

First up: Politics!

So, this weekend we vote. Without getting too much into my opinions (as I will be paid to write them for Saturday's paper!) there are some key things to consider about this election:

1) People in NSW and Queensland HATE Labor, and with good reason.
2) There is something a little bit rotten going on in Labor, and I see a lack of "true believers". The ones who are there - are leaving (Tanner, Faulkner).
3) If Gillard wins, she will face three years of backstabbing, backbiting and ugly politics. Live by the factions, die by the factions.

Anyway, here are some good articles.
- Paul Daley in the SMH argues Ms Gillard should have called the election later. (H/T Craig)
- David Penberthy on The Punch (former Daily Telegraph editor) reckons Abbott will win because the Coalition will claim the marginal seats.
- Annabel Crabb (Australia's best columnist) on The Drum gives her take on the election if Abbott and Gillard were allowed to speak freely.

My pick? This far out, I'm tipping Labor, but possibly only by one or two seats.

International politics
Things don't seem to be going so well in America. According to SMH journo Helen Pitt, they've lost that "can-do confidence". An interesting piece from an Australian perspective.
- This article, from a left-wing perspective, says President Obama's legacy is on the line. I don't think it is, but then, his polls are pretty bad apparently.

Don't flirt with this taboo

A good piece on Bill Henson from The Age

He is flirting with one of the last great taboos, and it is not puritanism or ''pandemic fear'' (his words) to ask: is there a moral issue with photos taken for adults that dwell so intently on the sexual awakening of children?

Should there be limits to artistic expression? I am not a believer in art for the sake of art, or that anything can be considered art. There are works that are pleasing to the eye, there are works that are confronting in order to send a message. There are works that are entertaining.

It is the works that send a message that seem to be most in danger of being misused. "This drawing of a man having sex with a horse is a comment on the relationship between man and nature. This photograph of the same thing is a similar comment, but it takes it a step further and adds the immediacy of the modern age into the dichotomy."

Society has taboos for a reason. Incest, paedophilia, a whole bunch of others I won't name because I don't want people searching for them and finding my blog.

I understand some things were taboo once and are no longer. Interracial relationships, women owning property etc. Perhaps art played a part in changing those things. But can anyone really tell me that artistically flirting with the taboos we currently have will result in a good change? Will anything change for the better if people continue to photograph children entering puberty in a sexual light?

Or maybe I'm too old-fashioned?

Dude...

...it's been a busy couple of weeks.

A couple of links!
- Pravda says "Australia's new Prime Minister to face severe unfeminine problems."

- The crazy Russians also say "Give Obama a chance."

- I love the way Bob Ellis writes this piece. The writing style just feels so flowing.

One of the few maxims I live by, Bad things happen fast, was evident yesterday in Canberra, where I saw the big change unfolding.

It was all too fast, and it was not thought through. And mistakes were made that needlessly gave the Abbott Opposition a tactical edge.

The first was to give Rudd permission to speak first, and emphasise (like Mark Antony) the enormity of his assassination and the majestic wonder of his many achievements (I cured the lepers, he said, and I raised the dead and I sought to save the planet but they wouldn't let me save the planet, the bastards, and the knife-thrust to this valve in my heart was cruel and unusual punishment, in my humble view) and to show, for the first time in years, the decent, civic-minded, smart, self-mocking, uxorious husband and parent that I (for one) first met and very much liked, and liked getting on the turps with, in 1999. 

 - Oscar Wilde quotes.

There are only two kinds of people who are really fascinating: people who know absolutely everything, and people who know absolutely nothing.

 - The most mental new soccer move I have seen in a while.

That is Juan Mata nutmegging Raul Albiol at World Cup training. Brilliant.

- How Germany saw Rudd's defeat.

- A crime novelist happened to be on the scene of the Rudd stabbing when it happened.

IT’S FOUR on Wednesday afternoon and I’m wandering the corridors of Parliament House trying to figure out where I am. The place is vast, a world entire, and its navigation presents a considerable challenge for the non-denizen on a temporary visa.

I arrived yesterday, come for a bit of a sniff around, collecting background for a novel way beyond deadline. I’ve already got what I came for – a few minutes with a handful of members, people who can draw diagrams of processes and describe situations that will become grist to my fictive mill – and I’m wondering if I can trade my cut-price ticket for an earlier flight back to Melbourne. What I don’t yet know is that an accident of timing has put me in the dress circle for the biggest show in town.

- Anna Kournikova and Martina Hingis got back together to play doubles at Wimbledon. I saw them play together at the 02 Australian Open and it was great. The other pair kept hitting the ball to Kournikova, trying to keep it away from Hingis. Anna was great.

- Possibly the most successful band you've never heard of.

- Bill Simmons' hilarious draft diary from a while ago. It's great.

5:09: Just found out that Rasheed Wallace is definitely retiring. Gotta say, I respect Sheed for knowing when to call it quits … and then waiting two more years, getting two more paychecks, and finally calling it quits.
(Follow-up note: Apparently he's doing one last noble act, not filing his retirement papers right away so the Celtics can trade his cap figure for another player … which, ironically, gives him real value to teams looking to dump payroll and/or get under the tax. This reminds me of a dying Darth Vader being nice to Luke Skywalker at the end of "Return of the Jedi." I don't know where this is coming from, but thank you, Darth!)

- The Bulwer-Lyton Competition for the worst writing in the world - winners announced!

- Larissa Riquelme (on the left) has become something of a massive celebrity since she's been following Paraguay at the World Cup.

There are plenty of galleries of her floating around, but here is a mainly safe for work one. She has said she deliberately went to the World Cup to boost her career by being photographed. It worked!

- The owner of the Cavaliers wrote a bitter letter to LeBron James after he dumped them for the Miami Heat (full post to follow). Unfortunately... he wrote it in Comic Sans. Heh heh heh.

- Snoop Dogg eyes cameo on Coronation Street!?!?

- The story behind why soccer players swap jerseys at the end of games. (Thanks Ben).

- Awwww the cutest thing from the World Cup Final!

Spanish goalkeeper Iker Casillas being interviewed by his journalist girlfriend Sara Carbonero... and giving her a big kiss :)

- Some criticism of Germany because they didn't have as many German-born players as people might have liked. At least Thomas Mueller hasn't let the team down.

- Is Suliemen Benn the Baddest Boy In Cricket??

His career highlights so far:

At least two tripping incidents.
Mouthing off to every opposition player.
Mouthing off to most players on his own team.
Getting in scrapes with Johnson and Haddin that lead to a suspension.
Being thrown off the field by his own captain.
And getting spat at by Dale Steyn.

That is not bad for a guy who has played 50 international matches.

Nathan Hauritz played that many before anyone knew he was alive.

- And... every pick up line on Mad Men.

Rudd Awakening?

Want to know why our Prime Minister is struggling in the latest poll?

Have a look at the major policies Kevin Rudd promised at the 2007 election:

Sign Kyoto: Delivered.
Sorry Day: Delivered.
Both of those were symbolic acts that cost the Government nothing, but were popular with the electorate.
GroceryWatch website: Dropped.
FuelWatch website: Dropped.
Embarrassing but not terminal, they were a sign of things to come. Promises not delivered on because they proved hard to make happen.
The 2020 Summit: Lots of ideas, barely any adopted.
One that made the Government look a bit silly, but again, nothing too bad.
Softer line on asylum seekers: Rocketing numbers of illegal boats arriving in Australian waters, policy then reversed.
This was a bad look. Labor refused to acknowledge the policy change had anything to do with the massive increase in boats, but then had to change it again when the numbers proved too huge to pretend.
The Emissions Trading Scheme: Dropped.
"The greatest moral challenge of our time," Rudd said. Those who wanted to wait and see were "cowards". Dropping the ETS has not played well with Rudd's left-wing base. This was a major promise that he has gone back on.
Tax reform: Mainly ignored.
The Henry Tax review made more than 100 recommendations. The Government adopted four. It does not look like Rudd is prepared to make hard decisions that will make him unpopular with the electorate.

The stimulus spending has thrown up its share of problems too.
Insulation rebate: Expensively dropped.
The deaths of four insulation workers, the death-trap roofs across Australia, the explosion of shonky builders ripping off the system, the billions of dollars the scheme cost to set up and then dismantle... could a policy have failed worse? Peter Garrett's career is over, but he is protecting Rudd loyally. Garrett sent four letters to Rudd telling him of his concerns with the scheme but they were ignored.
School stimulus: Extensively rorted.
The Victorian and New South Wales school stimulus administrations have been negligent, but the Auditor-General said today that the Government had not allowed local schools to make decisions for themselves. Who knows how many hundreds of millions of dollars have been wasted on "management fees", "consultants' fees" and "really crap buildings schools don't need"?


You know things are bad when even The Age editoral columnists turn against you. Miranda Devine makes an interesting point:

Rudd seems to be one of those people whose self-belief never falters, even while everything is falling down around him. But he has few cheerleaders left, outside of the increasingly unhinged Crikey blog. Even the ABC's Chris Uhlmann was scathing this week: ''If you really believe that climate change is the greatest moral and economic challenge of our age, then you wouldn't retreat, would you, because if you did, people might begin to wonder what you actually believe in?''

Perhaps the best assessment of the Prime Minister this week comes from the Roman senator Tacitus, via letter writer Harry Gelber, of Hobart: ''Omnium consensu capax imperii nisi imperasset.''

Roughly, it means: everyone agrees he would have been thought capable of governing, if he had not already governed.

Shaun Carney argues a point that I tend to agree with - what does the Rudd Government stand for?

There is only one question that needs to be asked of any government: why are you there? The Rudd government right now wouldn't find it easy to come up with an answer.

Michelle Grattan's quote was interesting too:

In an interview but off-air, Abbott was overheard saying, ''If Rudd wins the election, he'll last about three months''.

Gerard Henderson is a conservative columnist, and he points out why there will be no double-dissolution election. He also asks what Rudd's agenda is:

It is too early to judge the Rudd government. Yet it is fair to say in its first term, Rudd Labor has not matched the reform determination of the governments led by Hawke, Keating and John Howard. So far Rudd Labor's one outstanding reform, which will benefit productivity and assist lower socio-economic groups, is Julia Gillard's My School initiative.

Interesting stuff, if you like politics. If not - read these instead!
- A really good article about what you'll regret doing.

As someone once said to me: "I see a woman with a tattoo and I think, OK, here's a chick who's capable of making a decision she'll regret in the future."

- And a show to look out for.

New job again

I've been promoted. I'll be the chief political reporter, covering politics in Hobart. I'm really excited about it. It will probably mean this blog takes a back seat for a while. Not just yet because I don't start for a couple of weeks. But pretty soon. Anyway, here are some links.

- The disturbing whirlwind that is Justin Bieber. Something wrong with how older women are responding to him.
- Ambiguous headlines lead to interesting consequences.
- A well-written piece in praise of air tools.

Pictures!
Here is Paraguyan javelin thrower Leryn Franco

She is quite pretty.

Jon Hamm from Mad Men is awesome.

He wears suits! So do I. However, I am not quite as handsome he is.

Human rights?

Good news, everyone! We're not getting a Charter of Human Rights.

Why is this good news? Well, from the research I've done, the reasons to have one are:
1) There may be some areas of human rights in Australia that aren't completely, explicitly covered in detail by the various laws, commissions, panels and conventions.
2) Other countries have them, so we should too.

The reasons against?
1) There would be a significant shift in power away from elected representatives and towards the judiciary.
2) The main beneficiaries of a human rights charter? Lawyers. Specifically, human rights lawyers.
3) A Charter takes away the Parliament's ability to make policy reflective of the will of the people.

I think it's interesting that the people campaigning hardest for a Human Rights Charter in Australia are... human rights lawyers. They've been pushing for something that will give them more work for years. I wish I could get the Government to do an inquiry into possibly creating more jobs for reporters! We should have a Charter of Better Writing that makes it illegal to write a document without getting it checked and edited by a trained journalist. More work for me! Yay! Uh, I mean... this is a completely unbiased and impartial opinion.

Anyway here are the arguments for and against the cases:
For the Charter, by Professor Sarah Joseph, director of the Castan Centre for Human Rights Law at Monash University.
Against the Charter, by former NSW Premier Bob Carr.

Can you imagine if we enshrined stuff in the Charter that we couldn't change later?? Like in America how they let everyone carry weapons. Now the culture is irrevocably broken. What kind of dumb things would we put in a charter today that would be ridiculous in 200 years?

A spurious argument

The Punch is a good read. Usually. Yesterday, Leo Shanahan put up a s***ful article about the Young Libs. I hesitate to use the word "retarded", as it would be offensive to retarded people. They themselves would call the article "a piece of ******* ****".

Here it is.

Now I'm no fan of the Young Libs, but I feel compelled to defend them. It hate it when someone attacks someone else in such a terrible way that you have to defend them, even if you don't agree with them. It is known in most circles as the "Michael Moore Effect" (as opposed to the Gore Effect, which is to bring snow and rain to every city he speaks about global warming in).

Have a read, but if you like, I can summarise his points:
1) A guy who is a member of the Young Liberals in Queensland called President Obama a monkey on Twitter.
2) He was expelled from the Young Libs hours later.
3) Leo reckons this means there is a culture of racism within the Young Liberals.
4) In fact, he thinks the Liberal Party as a whole should have a good hard look at itself, because it has huge issues with overindulgence and stuff and shizz.

Ohhhh geez. I mean, I don't have to point out to you how stupid this argument is. So I won't.

Actually, I will, cos maybe you're Leo or Leo's mum and I wouldn't want you to go away without learning something.

Making sweeping assumptions about an entire group of people based on the Twitter of one of them is bad enough. Making those sweeping assumptions despite knowing that the member in question had been expelled from that group of people for that remark is downright unethical. Yep - it is willfully misleading and quite a bit s***ful.

So, by Leo's standards of logic, let's have a look at a few other news stories:
1) Brendan Fevola has gambling problems. Clearly the AFL is in the grip of debt-loaded cheating drunkards.
2) Christine Nixon was negligent in her duty on Black Saturday. JUST LIKE ALL VICTORIANS.
3) Kevin Rudd works his staff too hard. Every boss in Australia is doing the same and should be beaten behind the woodshed.

(Yay for straw men?)

The vast majority of comments are calling Leo out for his terrible article. The only commenters not doing that are rabid Labor supporters attacking the stupid kid.

So let this be a lesson to you! All of you!
1) Don't post racist comments on your Twitter.
2) Better yet, don't use Twitter. It's balls.
3) Especially don't make sweeping generalisations about large groups of people based on one remark from one member. That would just be stupid.

BONUS RANT

Are the Young Libs the easiest target to bash in the world? This is what I said on that article:

Finally - can anyone think of an easier target to pile on than the Young Libs? This article has almost every cliche about those born-into-privilege, boat shoe-wearing, private school-attending, sons of rugby union players I’ve seen. Perhaps Leo should have linked wearing a blazer to school to an endemic culture of violence against women. That might have completed the set.

Hope that was helpful! And Leo, if you're reading this, I usually don't mind your articles. But yesterday must have been a slow one in the office. I understand, I get those too.

"In this time of introspection, on the eve of my election..."

"I say to my reflection, "God please spare me more rejection!"."

Yes, I love elections. Love love love them. The Hare-Clark system is so much fun! Woop woop! Five-member electorates, preference counts, the uncertainty when a candidate gets excluded ("Will their votes stay within the party????"). Ahhhh, fun.

It's like the Olympics. It happens once every four years, the buildup is long and boring, but the action itself is great. You can follow all the action here.

"Well the Ukraine girls really knock me out..."

"...they leave the West behind."

The Beatles knew what was going on. Especially when it comes to former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Woah! She is a little bit gorgeous! Unfortunately for those of us who appreciate politics and beautiful women (and the combination of the two), she is now in opposition.

She was number one on Hottest Heads of State, but her spot has been taken by the Canadian Governor-General.

Earlier this week, Viktor Yanukovich narrowly defeated Tymoshenko in the Ukranian presidential election with 49% of the vote to Tymoshenko’s 45.5%. Political analysts say that it is no coincidence that exactly 45.5% of Ukrainians are hot and 49% are only good-looking. (The remaining 5.5% are bears.*) This election was a classic case of the “hots” versus the “hot-nots,”

Our very own Kevin Rudd comes in at... number 128.

Rudd looks less like a criminal or an alligator hunter than he does like a junior high social studies teacher. And not even a tough, disciplinarian teacher, but a nice one who would get taken advantage of by his students if they didn’t like him so much. Everything about him is benign, from his moon-shaped face to his glasses to his crinkling eyes to his thin blonde hair. Kevin Rudd is exactly the kind of person you would like to meet in a darkened alley. Because you’d mug him.

Random link time!
- Ill informed public searches for "Assburgers" Syndrome.
- Where Deadwood stars have gone.
- Why everyone deserves a prom, even lesbians.

This reverence for prom tradition is particularly true in suburban America, where boys still pick up their date in their dad's car, pose for photos in girls' parents' hallways and then drive off to their high school gym to dance really badly to Usher ballads. I can direct you to the Facebook photos of some of my younger relatives to prove it.
And it's worth it, making McMillen's case all the more poignant. It is very possible that I will never feel quite as happy as I did on that one evening in the mid-90s, as I wore my small silver crown and danced with my king (Alex Zimmerman. Call me!), while surrounded by my 500 or so contemporaries. Dirty Dancing's (I've Had) The Time of My Life was playing on the sound system – never was a song more appropriate.

 Time to go!

Random election thoughts

I expect Brett Whiteley to get over the line in Braddon based on Labor's preferences. No one who voted Labor would consider voting Green too... not in Braddon, anyway.

Denison is too hard to call. Andrew Wilkie will remain an option until the final round of preferences are cut up, Helen Burnett polled poorly but is still an option, while Elise Archer and Richard Lowrie are fighting it out for supremacy for the Libs. I really can't call this one.

I think it might be in the Liberals' interest to stay out of minority Government. They can sit back, watch Labor and the Greens get in each other's way and bicker for two years, and then sweep to majority power at the next election.

Even if we go back to seven member electorates - 35 seats in Parliament - the Greens won't get more than 6, at the most 7, members. One each in Braddon, Lyons and Bass, two in Denison, and at least one, possibly two in Franklin. There is enough of a vote to get four elected at the moment, but probably not enough to turn that into 8 or 9 once Parliament is expanded.

Voters who voted for the Greens should not expect to see their policies implemented, even if they are in a power-sharing arrangement. Nick McKim promised to put all of his policies on the table, so he will be the one giving away the most.

The Greens should also watch for a backlash at the next election if the power-sharing goes poorly. Green voters are fairly fickle, and easily disenfranchised. McKim has grabbed a slice of the middle, and that might not play well with his base.

Labor has the shortest collection of elected members I have ever seen. Bryan Green would be the tallest, and he wouldn't be taller than 5'10. The other nine are all shorter than him. The Parliamentary basketball games will be quite one-sided.

When I get that feeling, I want...

...electoral healing.

Yes! An election today! Finally!

My prediction is 10 Labor, 10 Liberal, 5 Green. It will depend on how well the Greens go in Denison if they get six seats, which I think would come at the expense of the Libs, rather than Labor. That said, it's hard to know just how much on the nose Labor has become. There will be a swing against Labor, but who knows if it will mean enough for the Libs to win the 13 seats they need. Remember, they're only starting with seven. And two of the sitting members are retiring at this election (Michael Hodgman in Denison and Sue Napier in Basas). So effectively the Libs has five people with the kind of name-recognition they need. My old housemate Dr Harry has been doing some polling with his year nine students, so check out what he thinks. I'm working the night shift tonight, talking to the winners and losers in Lyons. Should be interesting.
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So I finally finished Friday Night Lights season 4. And yes, Wallace from the Wire shows up (and D'Angelo Barksdale!!). That show delivers quality on a nightly basis. With one final season to go, I'm intrigued as to how it's going to end. They've managed some cast transitions pretty well, which has been good. It starts on DirecTV on June 30, I think.
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Other TV news, 30 Rock is having the season of its life so far. Every new episode feels like a high water mark. If you haven't got into this show, or had a crack at it and didn't enjoy it, maybe try again.

Also, Mad Men season 3 is really good. So much of the show is about what is not being said, what is not being done. It's a bit like The Wire in that way. Anyway, I'm five episodes in. I'm a little bit spoiled about some things that happen, but I don't know details. Suffice to say, I'm looking forward to it.
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And just in case you haven't seen this - the 30 Worst Album Covers Of All Time. Some of these are new ones that I haven't seen before, so that's nice.

Get your reading on!

LINKS!

- Something completely awesome: An angry rant about how Twilight invented werewolves, and the movie Wolfman was ripping it off.

This movie was a complete waste and I feel that it offends ALL Twilight Fans around the world, that including myself. For one, it was a COMPLETE remakingof the Wolf Pack from the Twilight Saga: New Moon. It gives the werewolves a bad name and makes them look like some deformed mutation of a rabid dog.

-  Country music in Australia is going through some tough times. So I guess someone will write a song about it.
- The battle to find places for sex offenders to live once they're released from prison. An interesting conundrum. Safe for work, in case you were wondering.
- Boring science story made readable by including a picture of Christina Hendricks in a corset-thingie. Well played, sub-editor... well played. If your work frowns on pictures of voluptuous women in small bits of underwear, best look away.
- One of the weirdest things I've read in a while: groups of strangers in Japan finding each other over the internet and committing group suicide in cars. A really fascinating read. One of the comments made by a guy in Japan really seemed to capture it. He reckons the country lost its ability to produce adults after it lost World War II.

Anno pauses for a moment, and gives a dark-browed stare out the window. “I don’t see any adults here in Japan,” he says, with a shrug. “The fact that you see salarymen reading manga and pornography on the trains and being unafraid, unashamed or anything, is something you wouldn’t have seen 30 years ago, with people who grew up under a different system of government. They would have been far too embarrassed to open a book of cartoons or dirty pictures on a train. But that’s what we have now in Japan. We are a country of children.”

-  A really good article about the attacks on Indians. The writer makes a point that I've been thinking about for a while. What was the cultural background of the attackers? That has not been publicised. What was the socio-economic background of the attackers? What religion did they follow? Were the crimes one of opportunity? All questions that should have been asked at the beginning, and the Indian media missed.
- Shane Crawford picks his AFL ladder. Interesting pick for number one.

 And now a couple of political things:
- Peter Costello on Stephen Conroy. While Costello is still a Liberal, he's working for the Government at the moment. And he was always a really, really smart guy. So when he speaks on tax policy, he knows what he's talking about. And it's not clear that Conroy does.
- "True Confessions: My time in the Young Liberals." Sounds like a scary title, and fair enough too. But the final comments were something I have talked about a fair bit:

In hindsight, my time working at the think-tank was quite worthwhile. Apart from allowing me to indulge in the odd healthy, well-rounded meal, it also forced me to confront my own political prejudices.
By being removed from my cosy left-leaning clique I was suddenly without the protection of groupthink and had to justify my beliefs to a group to whom I was speaking a foreign language.
While I highly doubt any of the Young Libs I met will be marching in the next “Free Palestine” rally I like to think we all made an impression on each other. Certainly my opinion on some issues, like internet censorship, has moderated quite substantially.
I found it was actually rather nice to leave the bunker for some fresh air and mingling with the other side.
But please: don’t tell my friends.

I find that quite an important point. I find so many people I talk to on both sides do not get out of their own little cliques to get an experience about what it's like on the other side. And to be a well-rounded human being, I believe it is essential to do that occasionally.

Eight million Australians in poverty by 2013!!!!

I once gave a talk to a conference of activists. People who were trying to end poverty etc. I was brought in to give an idea of how to deal with the media. I was very practical and gave them specific advice on how the media works and when, where and how to get media coverage.

I also told them to stay up to date with current issues and be proactive in offering comment in their field of expertise. (Eg, if they're a human rights activist, and it's a hot issue somewhere, call TV stations and newspapers letting them know you're available for a local angle).

One of the things I also stressed (among others) was to be able to back up their claims. If they were going to make bold predictions, it should be based on proven fact. Otherwise they'd end up looking stupid, and anything they say might would be ignored from then on (rightly or wrongly).

I saw this story today and was reminded of that:

A WARNING that climate change will melt most of the Himalayan glaciers by 2035 is likely to be retracted after a series of scientific blunders by the United Nations body that issued it.

Turns out the official 2007 report based the "melting Himalayas" claim on a story in the New Scientist in 1999. Which itself was based on a speculative interview with a little-known Indian scientist, who later confirmed it was speculation rather than anything factual. The report said the glaciers melting had "probability of greater than 90 per cent". Which was the report's own conclusion, again not something based on fact.

The effect of this? To call into question the validity of the rest of the report... and other reports the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued. Rightly or wrongly, they have been discredited as a source on this issue.

That was the sort of thing I was warning the activists about. It's all very well to say something like "100 homeless die each year on Hobart's streets" if you want to get a headline, but be prepared for a backlash and public discrediting soon after.

Abbott A Boy

Had a bit of a think about the Liberal leadership. Found out some interesting things. Here are some points.

Tony Abbott is a pretty good choice as leader.
- He's battle hardened. He was always on Lateline, Q&A, Sunday, AM, Insiders etc etc when the Libs were in Government, being asked the tough and curly questions. He knows how to defend and he definitely knows how to attack.
- He's smart. Whatever anyone thinks of his personal morals/opinions, they cannot deny his intelligence.
- He's a fighter. Literally. He was a boxer at Oxford.
- He strongly, strongly believes in the values of the Liberal Party. This is an asset. Because to unite a party, they have to believe you have an idea of where you want to go. Malcom Turnbull didn't believe strongly enough. And the rank and file didn't believe in him.
- He's shown himself to be tactically superior to Turnbull already. Once by showing up as a surprise candidate for the leadership and winning, and secondly by attacking the Emissions Trading Scheme as a huge tax and seeing the poll bounce because of that.

That said, he probably won't win the next election.
- Kevin Rudd isn't doing badly at all, and there is a long time (politically speaking) before the election. Australian elections are weighted in the incumbent's favour.
- I don't think Australia is ready to bring the Liberals back without some more generational change in the upper echelons.
- Rudd is a bureacrat but he's not stupid. He will find a way to 'tackle' climate change that doesn't involve a poorly-understood ETS.

Still, Abbott felt he had to do something.
- The Liberal Party is the one he loved, has grown up in, and been a huge part of. It was in the hands of a man who seemed to be betraying the very ideals the Liberal Party was founded on - namely, small government and low taxes. Regardless of whether Abbott wanted to be leader, whether he thought he could win the next election, it was a matter of principle for him that Turnbull not be leader. He was taking the Party away from its core beliefs.
- The decision has been justified, with two by-election wins in Brendan Nelson and Peter Costello's old seats, and a bounce in the polls following his decision to reject the ETS.

The ETS was Turnbull's idea
- Malcolm Turnbull was Environment Minister under John Howard, and his department developed the ETS model. Turnbull, a trader by profession, loved the idea of a carbon trading market.
- The idea is poorly understood outside Turnbull's office.
- Given that, it's no wonder he was going to vote for it as Liberal leader. It was his policy!

John Howard should shoulder some blame for the mess in the Liberal Party
- Even though he will go down as one of the Australia's more influential Prime Ministers Howard screwed up the Liberal succession plan. There was none.
- Perhaps he believed Costello would step up once he left. Perhaps he truly believed he would beat Rudd (not as unlikely at the time as it seems now). Perhaps he wanted the party to fall apart with him as some kind of monument to his greatness (ie, he was the only one holding it together).
- Regardless, Howard should have groomed a real successor and his failure to do that has given the party three leaders since the 2007 election.

A combination of climate change polices would be better than one over-reaching one
- We need encouragement for renewable energy, encouragement for decreasing reliance on coal, and some level of punishment for failing to meet targets. But as I've argued before quite a few times, positive policies are better than negative policies. They require more creativity, but the benefits are huge.

Kevin Rudd really needs to stop following Obama around
- It's cringeworthy. Please Kevin. Please. Stop it. If you don't know what I'm talking about, they're both attending the climate change conference in Copenhagen. Kev planned to be there at the end when Obama was. Obama changed plans to be there for the opening. Kev announced he would be there for the opening too. THEN Obama changed back to his original plan, and will be there for the end of the conference. Yesterday, Kevin changed his plans and decided he will be there for the end of the conference after all.
- It hurts.

The next election is going to be fun
- Can't you just feel it? Abbott out there, throwing punches, two sides completely disagreeing on a major issue, Rudd doing his Rudd thing, Barnaby Joyce piping in with some jokes and hilarious comments on the side...
- Seriously, it's going to be fun. Probably more fun than the Tasmanian state election, but I won't talk about that, just in case.

Hope you all didn't mind a return to some politics for a post!

Politics and Cougars: A Potent Mix

I've harped on this before. How we seem to lack a real passion for the political system that makes us so lucky, so creative, so powerful.

Anyway, it was good to see Tony Blair on David Letterman the other night mentioning this little line:

It’s a great test of a country. Are people trying to get into it or out of it? 

Sometimes I think we need to be reminded of how good things are for us. Here's a list of things that we enjoy that other countries might not.

- The right to vote
- A properly functioning road and transport system
- A vastly uncorrupted police force and legal profession
- Unemployment benefits
- The freedom to marry whoever we like (or not marry, too)
- Clean drinking water
- An efficient court system (comparatively)

And stacks of other things. I like that we've had record immigration numbers over the last decade. We've let more people into our country than ever before, and there are still more who want to get in. It's great. We should share the wealth and thereby make our country better for all of us.

On a completely different topic, I found these articles, which turned out to be quite randomly interesting.
From SFWeekly: Hello, Ladies: Fur Flies at Bay Area 'Cougar' Convention.
From East Bay Express: I Was Cougar Bait.

The first one is a news report on a convention held in San Francisco for older women who like to date younger men. It includes a series of photos of the night.

The second one is more interesting and recounts a 26-year-old journalist's undercover report from a cougar singles party. Married, clearly uncomfortable, and a bit apprehensive, he does a good job of navigating the party, as well as providing the background for the word and the rise of the cougar phenomenon. Also, he accidentally gets put in a rival newspaper covering the event. Heh heh heh. Anyway, I found it an interesting read.

A sad old crank

Some of you may have been 'lucky' enough to get a Lyndon LaRouche pamphlet in your mailbox. He is one weird dude.Every article seems to be about how Mr LaRouche predicted every financial crisis and every world problem back in 1959, and how rich he is, and how the world needs to change to a strange communist/capitalist hybrid economic system. Also, I think he hates the Jews.

I wonder what steps you have to take to become a self-styled financial guru??? Do you just start putting out pamphlets?

His wiki article talks about how he has been feted by Italian politicians since the GFC. Apparently LaRouche predicted it. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but LaRouche has been predicting the collapse of the global economic system every year since the 1970s. Just on the law of averages he is bound to get it right sometime. And besides, Italian politicians haven't made good decisions since one of Caesar's grandkids was in charge.

And for some reason he's anti-British and believes Queen Elizabeth II plans to "liquidate the sovereignty" of the Commonwealth nations, including Australia, Canada, South Africa and New Zealand. Hmmm...

I do feel bad for the people who read his stuff and believe it though. I guess it's like any cult. A certain number of people are always going to be attracted to the weird and obtuse. As far as cults go, LaRouche's seems to be relatively harmless. No one is being forced to be a "pleasure servant" or drink the Kool-Aid.

A few comments

Shaun posted this link on Facebook a couple of days ago, and it's a very good piece. Sam De Brito talks about the social contract we have as part of Western society, where we agree to give up some personal freedoms in order to take advantage of government services. And he talks about the hypocrisy of bikies and other citizens who happily accept medical help but refuse to talk to police. Or people who criticise police when they come looking for drugs, but call the police asap when their house is burgled or they are assaulted. Anyway, it's an interesting column.

Another interesting article is this one, about how rap feuds mirror the uni-polar global political system. Where there is one dominant power, the rest of the world challenges it to see where it is weak. It happened to Britain in the 19th century and the USA today. In this article, Jay-Z is referred to as the dominant power in rap. This is another article about the topic, which analyses Jay's combination of 'hard' and 'soft' power (terms familiar to those who've done some International Relations at Uni... fun times!). As hegemon, Jay's best option when confronted with attacks from lesser-known rappers, is to rise above the fray. The status quo is delivering him wealth and power, even if he has to put up with sniping from the sidelines. Anyway, I found it really really interesting, combining my love of international diplomacy and strategy with rap music. Can't ask for much more really.

(Wow, I'm not even finished reading that analytical article and I already love it so much. Nick, I think you might enjoy reading it too.)

A couple of fun things:
- A really cute photo of someone's dad asleep with a wombat. Aww! I want a pet wombat!
- A Random Dinosaur Comics second panel generator. Just hit refresh. Pretty randomly funny.
- A great wedding entrance, in which the entire bridal party dances down the aisle to Chris Brown's 'Forever'. That's right. And it's great.

Back to the lab again

Long time between posts - sorry. I was in Canberra, and also working on a project. Now that's done, time to get back into it.

Lots of things have happened, especially with the Godwin Grech stuff. I've got two points to make:

1) Who wrote that email? If it was GG himself, well, he's an idiot. I can see only two other options. Either someone associated with the Libs, trying to get a Treasury official to believe he had evidence of the PM's involvement in a corruption scandal OR someone associated with Labor, who knew Grech was passing info to the Libs, and knew this was the sort of thing he wouldn't ignore. There are the three options - Grech, Liberal or Labor.

2) Malcolm Turnbull is an absolute n00b. He had Swan in deep trouble, with evidence clearly stating he had given John Grant preferential treatment. And instead of going for Swan, he over-reaches and tries to bring down Rudd. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Turnbull went for both, and Swan ended up getting away.

- In other news, India has gone the same route as China and refused to cut greenhouse gas emissions.This has not only rendered the Copenhagan talks kinda useless, it's actually made a mockery of them. The Western countries can talk about "setting an example" all they want, but cutting emissions is not on the political agenda in India and China, and likely won't be for a very long time. As I've stated before, they're going about this in the wrong way.

- I haven't seen Transformers 2 yet, but hopefully soon. Anyway, here's what it would be like If Everyday Life Was Directed By Michael Bay.

- And check out the SR-71 Blackbird. An amazing aircraft, it actually was 'faster than a speeding bullet'. A pilot explains: "It was terrifying, exciting, intense and humbling every time you flew. Each mission was designed to fly at a certain speed; you always knew the airplane had more. It was like driving to work in a double-A fuel dragster."

Hee hee hee

Hee hee hee hilarious and awkward - watch these two "conservative rappers" perform.

Ohhhh yeaaahhh!

If it weren't for the suits, the bad rhymes, and... the suits, they might not have been too bad. Wait, scratch that, this was as bad as it gets. White guys can totally rap... just not these white guys.

From the other end of the political spectrum, we had this from a while ago:

Hee hee hee

Damn it, where are the good political songs these days?? I cannot think of a single good one in the last 20 years. And I do not count Green Day, as calling someone an idiot doesn't count as a political statement.

Edit:

I just found this, and it's great. An a capella cover of the Lonely Island's I'm On A Boat (feat. strong language)