Random election thoughts

I expect Brett Whiteley to get over the line in Braddon based on Labor's preferences. No one who voted Labor would consider voting Green too... not in Braddon, anyway.

Denison is too hard to call. Andrew Wilkie will remain an option until the final round of preferences are cut up, Helen Burnett polled poorly but is still an option, while Elise Archer and Richard Lowrie are fighting it out for supremacy for the Libs. I really can't call this one.

I think it might be in the Liberals' interest to stay out of minority Government. They can sit back, watch Labor and the Greens get in each other's way and bicker for two years, and then sweep to majority power at the next election.

Even if we go back to seven member electorates - 35 seats in Parliament - the Greens won't get more than 6, at the most 7, members. One each in Braddon, Lyons and Bass, two in Denison, and at least one, possibly two in Franklin. There is enough of a vote to get four elected at the moment, but probably not enough to turn that into 8 or 9 once Parliament is expanded.

Voters who voted for the Greens should not expect to see their policies implemented, even if they are in a power-sharing arrangement. Nick McKim promised to put all of his policies on the table, so he will be the one giving away the most.

The Greens should also watch for a backlash at the next election if the power-sharing goes poorly. Green voters are fairly fickle, and easily disenfranchised. McKim has grabbed a slice of the middle, and that might not play well with his base.

Labor has the shortest collection of elected members I have ever seen. Bryan Green would be the tallest, and he wouldn't be taller than 5'10. The other nine are all shorter than him. The Parliamentary basketball games will be quite one-sided.