My analysis of the 2008 Presidential Race
Two pros, two cons each - all's fair.

The Candidates:
Barack Obama (Democrat)
Pros:
- Is preaching change and hope when the American public is sick of eight years of Bush. It worked for... Bush, when he took after eight years of Bill Clinton getting it on in the Oval Office.
- Is an excellent public speaker and seems to genuinely inspire people.
Cons:
- Vastly inexperienced at government level.
- I saw this quote this week: "Obama loves the future because that's where all his achievements are." Harsh, but true. I mean, he worked as a "community organiser". I think that meant he wore a badge at committee meetings.

John McCain (Republican)
Pros:
- Extremely well-respected on both sides of politics for his measured views on foreign and domestic policy.
- Is keen to depart from the rampant right wing policies of the Bush Administration and return to more centrist positions, which means he is also preaching the change message - just not quite as stridently.
Cons:
- OLLLLLDDDD!!! Olllllllllllllllld!!!! Grandpa so old he remembers when "wireless network" meant making a net without using wires. He's 72. Young for a French politician. Old for the rest of us.
- Makes insenstive comments and gaffes with semi-regularity. Quite often about his wife. Not an awesome way to win over voters.

The Vice-Candidates:
Joe Biden (Democrat)
Pros:
- Very experienced and well-respected on both sides of politics. Has co-authored bills with McCain.
- Fairly down to earth. Has refused the temptation to move to Washington and commutes from his home state. Also raised his children after his wife died in a car crash.
Cons:
- Has co-authored bills with McCain. So he's hardly going to be the attack dog then.
- Believes Obama is too inexperienced to be President. Has gone on the record saying so (prior to his nomination, of course).

Sarah Palin (Republican) Pros: - Is not afraid to take on her own party, having put the previous Republican governor through a court case over his corruption, resulting in record fines being paid to the Alaskan government.
- Comes across as a very competent and forceful personality, and enjoys an 80+ per cent approval rating in her state. Also, she raised five kids. In Alaska. Woman is tough.

Cons: - Even more inexperienced than Obama, with Governor of Alaska her highest office held. Before that she was Mayor of Waisalla (or somewhere).
- Her time out of the national spotlight means she hasn't had the media blowtorch applied to her life. They're turning up a lot of strange things (like the whole "her son Trig is actually her daughter's kid" thing, which turned out to be false), but nothing career-killing... yet.

Here's what I think:

This is Obama's election to lose. He's got the weight of change behind him, which is a powerful force. It helped Bush get elected after Clinton's two terms of dicking around (...literally), it helped Kevin Rudd get elected after 11 years of conservative Liberal government in Australia. Obama, a powerful and personable speaker, is already speaking in presidential terms and basically acting as if he were already president. This might not wash in Australia, but it works well in America, cos it looks like he knows what he's doing and the other bloke doesn't. Obama is not stupid. He's playing the game well and he knows that if he keeps playing it well then he's probably got it in the bag.

McCain has a couple of faint hopes if he is to win it. He needs Obama to do something stupid, which is possible but unlikely. And he needs the far more likely thing to happen - people to say they're going to vote for the cool black guy, but actually they'll go with the old white guy. It happens everywhere. I think it was the 2004 Australian election, Labor was on top of the opinion polls for 51 of 52 weeks. The one week they weren't... well, there was an election held. And Labor got smashed. Opinion polls only count if they're horribly bad or horribly good. Anything can happen on the day.

Joe Biden was a good choice as VP candidate. He tempers Obama's inexperience with his own experience, and he also gives the whole "it's okay, he's got an old white guy looking over his shoulder" vibe, which should help with some of the racists.

Sarah Palin could prove to be a disaster, or an inspired decision. She's one tough motherof five, and it is unknown how she will play out on the campaign trail. I'm betting she'll do better than anyone predicts, but hey, I could be wrong.

Hope you enjoy that and feel free to comment to your heart's content!