Football!

I saw my first AFL game at Aurora on Saturday. If you could call it that. Hawthorn crunched Richmond. It was more like watching men vs boys. Like watching Chelsea play Arsenal in soccer. Or Australia play the West Indies in cricket. Dominant players clearly bettering smaller, slower, less skilled opponents. Dr Harry was with me and we spent most of the second half discussing the rest of the league for this season. Here's what we came up with:

1. St Kilda
2. Geelong
Easily the top two teams in the comp. Both have had off-field dramas that will hurt on field, but they still have massively deep lists. The loss of Harley from Geelong's backline and midfield will have an effect, but possibly it won't show until September. Milburn is a year slower, while Stevie J's hip must be almost gone. The Saints gave up pick 16 and former captain Luke Ball (only 25yo) to get Lovett... who they just sacked. That said, they'll be very strong again.

3. Collingwood
4. Bulldogs
5. Lions
6. Hawthorn
7. Adelaide
Five teams chasing two top four spots. Hawthorn will depend on how the injuries go this year, although Buddy and Roughead looked good the other night. Doggies and Collingwood probably still favourites for those top four spots. Hall will add something to the Bulldogs' forward line, but realistically this is one of their last couple of years challenging at top four level. The addition of Ball and Jolly to Collingwood tops up the list really well and frees up Fraser to spend more time in the forward line, replacing Rocca. Ball will rotate through the middle, winning the hard ball. That will mean more first use of the ball for Pendlebury, and more time in goal kicking positions up forward for Didak. Adelaide are strong without being stars, and home ground advantage will play a part. If Fev and Brown fire for Brisbane, expect some bags to be kicked. Voss has gone crazy recruiting a team to win a flag in his second year of coaching, so fair play to him.

8. Sydney
9. Carlton
10. North Melbourne 
11. Essendon
All chasing that eighth spot and last spot in the finals. Carlton lost their best goal kicker, and still have cultural issues. Essendon picked up Mark Williams but lost Lovett. North have a new coach but still have a disciplined squad. Sydney have Tadhg Kennelly back, along with Malceski and Rhyce Shaw out of the backline, and an angry Bradshaw up forward.


12. Port Adelaide
13. West Coast
14. Fremantle 
15. Melbourne
Freo might surprise, given that they still have Pavlich, who will start and end his career as the best player at Fremantle in each season he spends there. West Coast have some excitement in Natanui, but he's still raw. Port... you never know. They will win some great games and lose some shockers. Melbourne are young young young but hungry.

16. Richmond
It will be four or five long years of pain for Richmond. They have bottomed out at the worst time. The Gold Coast get all the draft picks this year, then Western Sydney get them the two years after that. Unless the Tigers unearth some gems lower down the draft, this will hurt. I can't seem them getting off the bottom in a long time. Dr Harry and I went through their squad and picked out maybe four players who could make Collingwood's team (Cousins, Deledio, Cotchin, maybe Tambling or Riewoldt as backups).

That's my loose ladder predictions. Obviously things will change, but they are the groups I expect to form on the ladder. Carn you Pies!