Chapter 84.5: Hot Stove on Low

Anyone who knows me fairly well is aware that I'm a Mets fan. And if they've spoken to me in the past several months about baseball, they know I have very little hope for the Mets this year. I haven't been optimistic about the 2010 season since midway through 2009 — if then. Or perhaps it's more accurate to say that I lost hope for the 2010 season somewhere around July or August.

But I'd been starting to feel slightly better after the Jason Bay signing. Bay is a good hitter, has some pop, and will fill a nice role in the lineup, but I figured he'd be a way of offering protection to David Wright or Carlos Beltran in the lineup.

Then Beltran went down, and the same feelings of hopelessness arose like a AAA outfielder when a star goes on the disabled list. I could opine on the Mets doctors and who I believe said what, when, and blah blah blahdy blah. But I also recognize that there's been little to no word about what we can expect from Jose Reyes. What it comes down to is that the offense is still in bad shape, and the more important element — pitching — is as full of question marks as a three-year-old.

So, what do I think will happen? I think Omar Minaya will be sipping margaritas by Memorial Day, paying for them easily with the contract extension he received before the 2009 season. Probably Jerry Manuel will close behind him, if Omar doesn't ax him prior to his own departure. The Mets are a mess right now. And as lovely as Citi Field is, I don't know that I want to spend any major league money on a seat for a game filled with minor leaguers. Call me crazy.

Chapter 83.5: Meaningful Games in 2011?

My Mets are so done they're using the lines from the grill as their pinstripes.

Remember April? Back then, this Mets team was supposed to be the one that fans would look back on and say, "Remember that '09 club? Johan, Cy Young Award. Reyes, MVP. Wright, a Gold Glove and the solid gold leader of the team. Gary Sheffield came in and hit his 500th homer in April and then Carlos Delgado did the same in September, like Hall of Fame bookends. Even Billy Wagner, expected to be gone for the entire year, came back in August to solidify the bullpen with the best late-inning one-two punch the game had seen in a decade. That was the final ingredient that perfected the recipe. New York Mets, World Champs of 2009."

But no. Not even close. The Mets haven't had a meaningful game since before the All-Star break. Every single one of their so-called "core players" went on the disabled list: Reyes, Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Santana. Add to them Brian Schneider and Angel Pagan, John Maine and Oliver Perez. (Don't get me started about Perez!) Hell, even Alex Cora was lost for the season!

Abysmal. Thank God for the Washington Nationals.

Back in March, I had meant to do my annual season predictions. I had expected the Mets to come in second behind the Phillies, win the wild card, and advance to the World Series. But I didn't write it. There just wasn't enough time. I'm glad. It's bad enough that I'll admit that I thought this was going to be a good team. What's worse, Omar Minaya was signed to a three-year contract extension that hasn't even begun yet. This team is bad. The mechanic hasn't proven he can be fully trusted after several years under the hood. What's a fan to do?

Chapter 79.6: Shea Goodbye, Unless...

Today, the last regularly scheduled game at Shea Stadium is taking place. In fact, it has begun. I was fortunate enough to get a call just before I left work Thursday night with a free ticket to the Mets game against the Cubs. Pedro Martinez vs. Rich Harden. Game number 159 in the season.

And at many times during the rainy night, I feared they would lose. Indeed, the Mets never led until they won. It will probably be my last night at Shea.

I'll miss it; it was home of my favorite team. I have many memories: my first baseball game, watching Nolan Ryan almost throw a no-hitter against them, riding the #7 train to meet up to watch the Mets play the Cardinals when Mark McGwire his his 400th homer, feeling the entire stadium shake during the final game of the 2000 NLCS, using a ticket from a friend who died on 9/11 to attend one of the first games after that terrible day, running onto the field during the 1983 Simon & Garfunkel concert, watching Billy Joel at the final concert at Shea. There are so many more.

And there could be at least one more night, because the Mets and Brewers are tied for the wild card, courtesy of a three-hit shutout by Johan Santana yesterday and a Cubs win over the Brewers. If the Mets and Brewers both win or both lose today, then they play each other Monday night at Shea.

But after today's game, there'll be a celebrtion of Shea. Even if the Mets end up not going to the playoffs, I wouldn't miss the celebration. The stadium may be ugly and noisy and stinky, but it's been home.

Thanks, Shea. Citi Field won't be quite the same.

Chapter 79.4: Mets Continue to Struggle

The Mets keep on struggling, but at least they finally beat the woeful Washington Nationals.

Yet, despite the awful way they completed last season, I don't have the same sense of dread that I felt then. The 2007 team broke my heart. Of course, so did the 2006 team, when I watched Carlos Beltran follow a breaking pitch into the catcher's mitt for an embarassing third strike in the NL Championship Series. Somehow, I don't think Jerry Manuel — my new favorite manager ;-) — will allow them to quit on themselves like the 2007 squad did.

I'm sure this club could end up frustrating me just as much as the previous two teams, but for some reason I don't think it'll happen. For one thing, they have two legitimate shots at making the playoffs — though in both the division and the wild card, they have close competition. The Phillies are the defending division champs and they must be respected, while the Brewers have CC Sabathia, who may just be the best pitcher in the National League right now.

So, I'll use the Mets as a way to introduce a new gadget on my blog: a poll question. What do you think, will they make the playoffs (and, if so, how do you think they will they get there), or will they be playing ping pong with the Yankees?

Vote early and vote often.

Chapter 78.5: My, How Things Have Changed

Not so long ago, the next three Mets games would have been an electric series of games. The Braves are coming to town to play my beloved Mets. Alas, these are not the same Braves that won division titles every completed year from 1991 to 2005. (I still think the Expos would have won in 1994, but the strike killed baseball and essentially pulled the plug on that unfortunate franchise.)

One of the remaining stalwarts of those excellent teams from Atlanta that led the National League East for more than a decade is Larry Jones — better known as Chipper. In my opinion, he's a likely Hall of Famer, albeit not a surefire, first ballot honoree.

In an interview with the New York Times, he reflected on those heady days of 1999, when Bobby Valentine managed the Mets and Chipper was one of the most dominant bats in the NL. After taking two of three in a summer series, Jones commented about how Mets fans "can go home and put on their Yankees jerseys." While he was apparently inspired by some yo-yo who wore one of those split Mets/Yankees shirts, Jones was clearly not aware of how deep the divide can be between Mets and Yankees fans.

I suspect it's just as prominent between Cubs and White Sox fans, and maybe even between Dodgers and Angels fans.

Of course, the Braves can still hurt the Mets, who hold a tenuous 1.5 game lead over our latest chief rival, the Phillies. Losing the series to the Braves wouldn't destroy the Mets, but if they damage them in these dog days of August, the Mets could find themselves unable to shake off the inevitable questions about last year's epic, infamous demise.

We'll see what happens. For some reason, I think this could be an exciting season, regardless of how mediocre the Braves have become.

Chapter 78.4: Is Glavine Done?

Though the 2007 baseball season is long since finished, Mets fans have not forgetten the terrible way it ended. After weeks of bullpen failures and a lack of clutch hitting, John Maine took a no-hitter deep into the game, and while he wasn't able to toss the first no-no in Mets history that day, he was able to win the game and get the Mets back into a tie for first place.

The next day, Tom Glavine couldn't get out of the first inning.

So, while it may not be fashionable among Mets fans, I was saddened to read that his career may be over. Glavine's injured elbow has caused him to shut it down for 2008, and he hopes the Braves will take him back in 2009; he doesn't want to play anywhere else, he said.

Though I've never met him, I have a lot of respect for Tom Glavine. He always worked hard, he answered reporters' questions, and he genuinely seemed to understand a fan's perspective. Plus, he is and will always be a family man. Some of these players talk about how a decision has to make sense for their family, but then they take a few million dollars more to go elsewhere. He did it too, but for some reason, I believe his family meant more to him than the money.

I was proud to see him win his 300th game as a Met. I'm happy he played for my favorite team and that I saw him pitch a few times.

So if this is the end, I'm sad for him and for baseball. But I don't think he's too worried. He's got a family that loves him and he's got nothing to be ashamed of overall — not even that last 1/3 of an inning in 2007 (though I didn't think that at the time).

Chapter 77: See Ya Later, Willie

To me, the Willie Randolph situation had become so unimportant that I'd stopped watching the Mets. Yes, that may sound like a contradiction, but my point is this: The Mets are terrible, and unless I hear that things are actually turning around, I probably won't watch much.

I thought about turning the game on late last night, but before I turned the channel from Colbert, I fell asleep. The next thing I know, REM is playing on the Ferguson show. Time for bed.

I wasn't aware of Willie being fired till I heard it on the train platform. I'm not quite sure Omar Minaya flew them all out to California only to fire them. It seems like a pathetic way to avoid the heat in New York. At this point, I don't much care. The team is playing miserably, and I can't bear to watch.

It's not so much that they fired Willie. I can certainly accept that. But to do it in such a callous, cowardly way is simply despicable. The way the firing was handled suggests that the problem wasn't so much with the manager -- or even the players -- but with ownership. It's not enough to sign the checks and pave the way for a new stadium. You need some class, too. From the sound of it, they don't have any.

Jerry Manuel, I wish you luck. I'm sure I'll tune in eventually, but I need a moment.

Chapter 76.5: Another Day, Another Month...

Soon we will enter June, but in the final beautiful days of May, I sense a calmness in the New York area. For the Mets have started to win.

The streak is modest, to be sure; three game winning streaks should be commonplace for good teams. But these are Willie's Mets. Willie Randolph, who many fans thought would be fired this week, has survived so far and has his team looking more stable (albeit at the .500 mark) than they've looked since banging the Yankees ... my goodness, was it only two weeks ago!

As coincidence would have it, Willie's former colleague, Joe Torre, was back in New York as well, his Dodgers competing against the Mets, which allowed for an interesting article to appear in the New York Times. Harvey Araton, in his column, noted that the Yankees weren't quite as whiny when Torre was being insulted last fall as was being remembered this spring.

Araton writes:

Last October, Mike Mussina said of Torre, “If we don’t perform, it shouldn’t be a reflection on his ability.” Johnny Damon said: “We’re not just playing for him. We’re playing for a bunch of players in there.” ... Alex Rodriguez was too busy opting out and begging back in to worry about a manager. Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera were supposedly factoring Torre into their free-agent strategy, but the Yankees substituted an alternate Joe (Girardi) along with keys to the Steinbrenner vault. The band played on.

And the Mets fan looks at the standings, recognizes that the team is 3.5 games out of first place after taking two of three from the first-place Marlins (who are on their own three game losing streak), and says "Ok, Willie's safe for now. But don't let it happen again!"

We're fickle, we Mets fans.

As I've said to fellow Mets fans, who else is there right now? Short of importing Bobby Valentine from Japan, I don't think the Mets have a clear option that's better than -- or more importantly different from -- Willie. Jerry Manuel was a decent manager in Chicago (Cammy, Frank, correct me if I'm wrong), but his casual approach eventually allowed the players to get lazy. Laziness and complacency are killing the Mets. As for other options that have been voiced: Ken Oberkfell (Mets AAA manager) might have the chops, I really don't know; Gary Carter shot himself in the foot, which he'd already shoved in his mouth; Jim Fregosi doesn't impress me; and Tom Kelly is too smart to leave retirement for the New York circus.

I'd love to hear other people suggest other managers for the Mets, because I'm not convinced Willie's going to remain regardless of this little winning streak.

What I'd really love to see are Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran start to hit like they used to, Luis Castillo demonstrate why Omar lavished millions on him this past winter, and the pitching staff to work consistently and well into the latter third of the game. Is that too much to ask of a "championship-calibre team"?

Chapter 76.2: Time to Strike the Match, Willie

I'm sorry to say this, but I think it's time for Willie Randolph to go. I won't belabor the point, because the arguments I'll make are pretty much the same ones that have been bandied about already.

The fact is, the Mets are playing like an uninspired, mediocre team. Billy Wagner is right that the players need to be held accountable; moreover, he's correct in saying he's not the one who should be answering reporters' questions about what's wrong with the team. (He's a reliever, already! He's not the reason the bullpen has been so bad. The guy hasn't given up an earned run all year.) But there's more to it than just that. The team is listless.

Don't blame the injuries, either. No one really expected much from Pedro or El Duque. The team should be hitting better than this. Part of the problem is that Carlos Delgado is past his prime. We could tolerate a .260 batting average from him with 20-22 home runs and maybe 80-90 RBI if Carlos Beltran were hitting, but neither of them are producing as expected. For that matter, neither is David Wright at the moment. Thank God for Ryan Church! But what has happened to Jose Reyes?

What kills me is that the way the Mets are playing is not what I have come to expect of a Willie Randolph club. When he was playing, Randolph was a hard-nosed, strong-willed player, proud of his abilities and too stubborn to accept losing. Ask him if he's worried about his team's performance now, however, and he gives an answer of "No, not yet. ... It's just one game. ... You can't judge a season on a couple games..."

Willie, a quarter of the season is behind you. If you can't get this club playing like champions by now, why should you be allowed to keep at it?

Ignite that fire in your belly, Willie. We all know it was there in the past. But if you don't find the fire, you'll find yourself fired.

Chapter 75.4: Admiral Nelson

Tonight's game was a pleasant change, and perhaps is the start of a poignant baseball story. Brooklyn-born Nelson Figueroa won his first start with the Mets -- his "hometown" team, which drafted him in 1995. Beyond the joy of the Mets' three game winning streak, I'm pleased by their ability to beat some good teams.

The Phillies messed up opening day (which I was lucky enough to attend!), but the Mets took the next two -- due in large part to poor play by the Phillies on Wednesday and a call that could have gone either way on Thursday. Tonight they took their first meeting with the Milwaukee Brewers, who should compete for the NL Central Division crown. So things seem to be looking good for now.

But what really pleased me tonight was reading the story that appeared in the New York Times after the game. During the game, Figueroa's dad, a Brooklyn electrician, was interviewed. He told the guy from the Mets network, SNY, "This is fantastic. I died and went to Heaven." And later his mother said, "You don't know how proud he made us tonight. That's his dream. His dream was to play on this team." It's simply nice to hear things like that. These are real people. It's hard to root against a guy like that. Keep it up, Nelson!

Chapter 75.2: Are You Ready for Some Baseball?!

It’s that time again. Baseball season!

There are several enticing stories surrounding this season, not the least of which is that it’s the one hundredth anniversary of the last time the Chicago Cubs have won the World Series. My White Sox fan friends in Chicago notwithstanding, I think most baseball people would be pleasantly surprised to see them at least make the Series if not actually win it. Personally, I believe they lost their chance in 2003 – though I don’t blame Bartman, I blame their pitching and inept fielding.

Anyway, I open this season as I’ve opened each season since I started this blog: My annual predictions. Since it takes too long to actually report on every single team, I’m going to give more general statements.

NL East: As usual, I hesitate to predict the Mets will take the division because – as they proved last year – it’s always within their capacity to screw things up and steal defeat from the jaws of victory. That said, I believe the Mets pitching staff is much better than it was last year. Johan Santana is quite possibly the best pitcher in the game today, and by placing him the admittedly weaker National League, he should be able to dominate. I’m looking for an excellent season and the first Met Cy Young Award winner in more than twenty years (Dwight Gooden, 1985). Mets to take the division. Their competition will be Atlanta and Philadelphia. I have no faith in Washington or Florida.

NL Central: This division will be fun to watch. It’ll be either Chicago or Milwaukee, both of which are fun to watch. I can’t trust Milwaukee’s pitching however. Even their ace, Ben Sheets, is a risk given his injury history, though Jeff Suppan is usually steady. After them, their current staff is Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra – not exactly John Maine, Oliver Perez, and El Duque. Plus their bullpen has more questions than a four-year old. They can hit, and it should be fun to watch Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun lead their offense. The Cubs have a better pitching staff going in: Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly are fairly solid. Jason Marquis, Ryan Dempster, and Jon Lieber seem like the likely other starters if Rich Hill isn’t able to hold onto his spot in the rotation.

The other possibility in this division are the Reds, though I honestly don’t expect them to do much of anything. The rest of the division has become pretty much a joke. It’s hard to believe that the Astros were in the 2005 World Series and the Cardinals won it all in 2006. Like most teams these days, they don’t have enough pitching. Pittsburgh doesn’t count. Cubs to take the division.

NL West: This division is a crap shoot because there are several teams with enough talent to win. The worst of the west, the Giants, actually have pretty decent pitching – and if Barry Zito can return to his old Cy Young form, they may actually be able to find enough offense to contend. But I doubt it. Coming from the West are the NL Champion Colorado Rockies as well as the resurgent Dodgers, the much improved Diamondbacks, and last year’s second worst chokers, the Padres – all of which have the ability to sneak out with at least the Wild Card. I think we’re going to see the baby snakes prove themselves. Diamondbacks to take the division, Rockies take the Wild Card.

AL East: This remains a Red Sox and Yankees division, but the Blue Jays are ready to surprise people. Their pitching staff sports former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay as well as Dustin McGowan and A.J. Burnett. Their bullpen is a little sketchy, but should be ok, especially if BJ Ryan returns with anywhere near his past accomplishments. Both the Yankees and Red Sox remain quite well stocked, however, so anything less than second place for either must be viewed as a terrible failure. The Rays (formerly from hell, but now simply hailing from Tampa) have greatly improved but won’t reach 75 wins. Baltimore will probably find themselves in the basement of the division. Red Sox take the division.

AL Central: The Tigers are scary! They have pitching, they have "mad offense," and they have one of the game’s best managers. I expect great things from them. The Indians will be strong again as well, though I would be impressed if C.C. Sabathia can retain his Cy Young form in his walk year and especially if Fausto Carmona can match his accomplishments from last year. The White Sox should be improved, and if the Royals can pitch at all, they may surprise people; they’ve got some great young hitters like Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, who had a strong second half last year after an awful beginning. I don’t think the Twins can compete with these guys, though they always play hard and have lots of talent still. Tigers take the division, Indians win Wild Card.

AL West: Like its NL cousin, I expect this division to be fairly tight most of the season. But I don’t think it’ll be for the same reasons. The Angels could have run away with the division, but they’re already struggling with their pitching, which has been hit by injuries. John Lackey – out. Kelvim Escobar – out, possibly for the full season. Jon Garland is toward the top of the rotation now. He should be stronger than he was in hitter-friendly US Cellular in Chicago, but he’s got to prove himself again. The Mariners have replenished their rotation with young stud Erik Bedard, who along with Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and newcomer Carlos Silva should make the Mariners the biggest unexpected surprise of the year. The Angels could still squeak it out if they get their pitching back, but I’m going to go out on a limb. Mariners take the division.

I’ll update these predictions after I’m proven wrong. But with these eight teams, I’m making the following predictions. NL playoffs: Mets defeat Rockies, Diamondbacks defeat Cubs. Mets defeat Diamondbacks. AL playoffs, Tigers defeat Mariners, Red Sox defeat Indians. Tigers defeat Red Sox. Tigers beat Mets in World Series.

Chapter 72.8: Long Live Signman!

In this era of throwback baseball stadiums, with their entertainment areas, swimming pools, and oh yeah baseball, one aspect that hasn't quite been retrofitted is the sense of continuity. Owners have tried, of course. They've incorporated elements of previous eras -- the little hill in deep center at the Astros park and the cut line from home to the pitchers' mound in Arizona, for instance -- but they come off as affectations. What really makes continuity and atmosphere in a stadium are the fans.

As a longtime Met fan, I still have many memories of the Signman (Karl Ehrhardt)who seemed to attend almost every game at Shea when I was growing up in the late '70s, when the team stank so bad fans almost needed masks. Only a kid could love a staff that included Craig Swan, Pat Zachary, and Nino Espinosa. The Signman was unique. You knew you were watching a Mets game (on WOR, Channel 9) when the camera showed him hoisting some clever commentary about a play or a player. Perhaps the most famous were associated with the '73 team that was in last place in September and went on to win the division with an 81-win season. "Ya Gotta Believe!" Tug McGraw exclaimed, and the Signman, in late September and early October, would reply "We Believe!"

The signman died this past week. He was 83. I for one have missed him. According to a 2006 article, the Signman had caught the message of the team's new ownership in the early '80s and stopped coming to Shea, where the stink of the late '70s teams lingered. Like Tom Seaver before him, Signman was no longer wanted by anyone but the fans.

I wish Signman had had a chance to move with the Mets into the new Citi Field, which is expected to open in about 13 months. I think there's reason to believe the Wilpons would have invited him. He'd been brought back before -- in 2002 to help celebrate the team's fortieth anniversary -- and I hope they do something to commemorate him this year.

The Wilpons designed the new stadium in the image of the old Ebbets Field where the Brooklyn Dodgers played. They seem to have some sense of history. If they know their fans, they'll recognize the late Ehrhardt's passing somehow this year. And if they hope to populate Citi Field with more than simply three million fans -- if they want to retain the best aspects of Mets history in the new home -- then they'll honor Signman in the new stadium. It's the right thing to do.

Chapter 72.55: So Begins the Santana Era

It is official, Johan Santana is a Met (ok, pending a physical. So shoot me.)

I found it very interesting that there were multiple reports that the Players Union was pushing Santana's agents to make sure the contract at least reached the $150 million barrier. From what's being reported, he will earn that much from the Mets; the only difference the team might argue is that part of it was due to bonus, but that's a semantic difference in my non-legal opinion. The union's stake in this is irritating to say the least. I realize they're trying to establish new standards to enable their members to maximize their career earnings, and that's what they're supposed to do. But a big part of that comes out of the wallets of the already frustrated fans.

I'll be lucky to afford to attend one game next year. I just can't throw money for a game these days. But I'll want to visit Shea one last time (though if I don't, then Tom Glavine's 298th win would be my final visit.) And when they go to the new ballpark in 2009, the tickets will be even more expensive.

But that's for another time. Right now, I am happy. My favorite team has improved itself. Spring training will start (for the Mets) on Valentine's Day. And like the lovestruck fool that I am, I return to the one who hurt me not so long ago. Ah, frailty, thy name is Mets fan.

Chapter 72.4: Thank You, Omar

It's a long, long baseball season, and even months in first place doesn't guarantee that your team will be there at the end. Case in point: the 2007 Mets.

But my Mets have taken a much needed and long awaited step toward absolution for the 2007 season by acquiring a man who may be the best pitcher in baseball. Johan Santana, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, is on the brink of joining the Mets. All that stands in the way is a multi-million dollar contract, which is expected to land in the realm of $150 million for seven years. By the time the new stadium opens next year, I'll count myself lucky to still be able to afford to watch them play on television.

But I can always read a paper, and I look forward to recounting around twenty wins next season and perhaps even another Cy Young Award for Mr. Santana. Welcome to New York, Johan. We're happy to see you. Now win.

Chapter 70.3: Hall of Almost

Somehow I missed this piece in the New York Times about the "Hall of Merit." Years ago, I had a similar idea -- that is, I consider some players members of the "Hall of Almost Famous."

What these folks are doing is admirable: they're trying to evaluate players from the whole of baseball history using the benefit of a broader array of statistics. No one really cared about on-base percentage until the mid-1980s, for example. Correction -- most baseball writers didn't care about on-base percentage. Or WHIP for pitchers. That is, walks plus hits per innings pitched.

It's not as though people didn't think of those things, however. I remember listening to Ralph Kiner announcing Mets games when Jerry Koosman was pitching for them in the late '70s. He'd talk about how his record was bad, but he was pitching well. "You can tell that because he's given up nearly a hit an inning," the ol' power hitter said. I've often felt Kiner was an underrated announcer. I'd like to see him considered for the Hall of Fame as an announcer as well as a player.

But back to my point. The Baseball Think Factory has reevaluated all the game's players and allowed their small group to vote players into their own Hall of Merit. Players like Joe Adcock, Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat, Tommy John, Vada Pinson should be reconsidered. I think they'd probably all remain in the Hall of Almost; I've not checked yet what Baseball Think Factory has determined. I'd say Gil Hodges too, though I know there's a strong contingent of Brooklynites and Dodger fans who'd like him in the actual Hall of Fame.

I've read several arguments about whether Tim Raines belongs in the Hall of Fame; he's eligible this year for the first time. I watched him play a lot when he was an Expo, and he was an excellent ballplayer. I'd have loved to have him on the Mets. Back in the '80s. I don't know if it was all the running he'd done early in his career, all the years on the turf in Montreal, or the drugs he did in the '80s, but once he turned thirty, his career went into a slow but steady decline. When he arrived in New York as a Yankee, he remained a solid complementary player. The question, then, is whether his years as the best leadoff man in the National League were enough to warrant his induction into the Hall.

The Hall of Merit says yes. Matt's Hall of Almost Famous puts him on the bubble. If I were a voter, I'd strongly consider him. But I don't think he should gain immediate induction. Others disagree with me, but I think players voted in during their first year of eligibility are more special, more worthy. I think there's a major difference between Tom Seaver and Phil Niekro. Niekro had more wins and played mostly on worse teams, but Seaver was simply on a different level. And it's not simply because Seaver threw a great fastball and slider and Niekro was a knuckleballer. Lots of people don't even think Niekro should be in the Hall at all.

The article also says Dave Stieb should be in the Hall of Fame. I thought he was a very good pitcher, and it's a shame that he just missed out on a perfect game, but I just don't think he's a Hall of Famer. He pitched in an era with lots of mediocre pitchers, it's true, but he never came close to winning the Cy Young Award, never won twenty games in a season... How can you say he was one of the best pitchers of his era? Because he had a good WHIP? That's true, but is that really enough? Ask Jerry Koosman. His ERA was better than Stieb's, posted a nearly identical WHIP, won 222 games (while playing for some really abysmal Mets teams), and came in second in the 1976 Cy Young Award voting. Where's the hue and cry for putting Koos into the Hall?

Koosman was a darn good pitcher. But he's not a Hall of Famer. Neither is Dave Stieb. Was Tim Raines better than Lou Brock? There's lots of statistics that would say yes. But Brock may have been a more important player. I think that matters too -- at least to Hall of Fame voters.

Well, I suppose I should read the Factory site. I'd enjoy a good baseball argument tonight.

Chapter 70.15: Food for Thought

The Winter Meetings are upon us, and Omar has begun with an incomprehensible move. Lastings Milledge to the Nationals for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. I don't mind the departure of Milledge, but wasn't Billy Beane supposedly interested in him? Does this mean that Beane's holding onto Dan Haren and Joe Blanton?

Last I heard of Ryan Church, he was Frank Robinson's whipping boy. And while Schneider's a good catcher, I'm not sure he's going to stay long; with Johnny Estrada and the re-signed Ramon Castro already in the fray, I can't help but think that one of the two newcomers is about to be shuffled off. I'd keep Schneider, unless he can bring back a starting pitcher.

God, this off-season is almost as frustrating as last September was!

Chapter 69.1: My Hat's Off, But Don't Cry for Joe Torre

As a young Mets fan, I had a special feeling for Joe Torre. He briefly worked as a player manager -- almost as uncommon in the 70s as it is unknown in the 21st century -- and to my eyes seemed like the perfect man to lead the misfit Mets. I felt bad when the Mets fired him -- just when they seemed to be making progress! -- and happy when he took the Atlanta Braves to the playoffs in 1982.

While Yankees fans were unimpressed when he became the manager of their team in 1996, I was happy to see him return to New York. And as impossible as it is for me to say this, I almost rooted for him when they beat the Braves in the '96 World Series. Almost. When Jim Leyritz hit that home run that turned the tide, my hatred of the franchise returned.

When a man takes his team to the playoffs for twelve consecutive years, you'd think his job would be secure. A team that appears in six World Series in twelve years -- you'd think the job would be secure. But, no, they ask him to take a 33 percent paycut and sign a one-year contract, ostensibly to train his likely replacement, Don Mattingly, and look like a money-grubbing weakling to his players. The Yankees have every right to not re-sign their manager, whose contract had ended. But to most fans -- Yankees fans or not -- their actions are an insult to a dignified man. Yes, he would still have had the highest salary for a manager, but he deserved better treatment.

Whether the Yankees hire Mattingly, Joe Girardi, Luis Sojo, Bobby Valentine, Tony La Russa, or Buck Showaler, I expect them to struggle next year. Mariano Rivera, who is on the downside of his career but still effective, has said he won't return if Torre doesn't. Roger Clemens is done. Jorge Posada is a free agent, but I expect they'll re-sign him. And their much lauded young arms are still inexperienced. They will not have the steadying hand of Torre around; let's see whether that matters.

But Torre will be fine; of that I have no doubt. He could easily become the highest paid analyst in television -- not manager money, of course, but it would keep him in the public eye and keep his endorsement options wide open. Or he could manage elsewhere. Is Tom Trembley's spot in Baltimore really secure? Probably. And Torre might not want to manage in the same division as the Yankees just yet. The Royals have some good young players. They could use a steadying influence, though he's really done better with established ball clubs. So, ditto the Pirates, whose managerial spot is open too.

I suspect Torre won't manage in 2008; he'll be in TV land for a year. But by 2009, if Willie Randolph falters with the Mets, I could see Torre having a triumphant return to help open Citi Field. Stranger things have happened.

Chapter 67.4: Rockies Mountain High, Humidor Style

Congratulations to the Colorado Rockies. Note to the Mets: the Rockies made the post-season because of pitching, particularly their bullpen. The amazing thing is that for years no one thought a team in Denver could win because of the thin air and necessarily spacious ballpark. But once they started tossing the balls in the humidor and built a team that believed it could win, it was able to meet its goals. They've still got a lot to prove, but they're already more interesting to watch than a bunch of guys cleaning out their lockers.

Chapter 67.35: Free Willie?

That scant number of people who've been reading my blog may have noticed one person I'm not blaming for the Mets meltdown. Willie Randolph. Do I think he's without blame? Of course not. I think, for example, that Humber should have gotten the start that Brian Lawrence had, but I understand the reasoning for not using him. I think he's made some strange decisions -- from double switches he chose not to make to pinch hitters he chose not to use at particular times -- but I don't think he's to blame for the debacle that has made the Mets the butt of jokes for the entire off-season and probably well into the next decade.

He's going to have to win early in 2008; this team cannot afford to sleepwalk any more, regardless of how much of a makeover the roster receives.

But right now the problem is about the pitching staff mostly -- starters and relievers. Willie tried to put his best guys in there -- Heilman and Feliciano in particular -- but they kept giving up hits. Mota had a few good innings at the end, but none of these guys seems able to pitch more than one inning any more.

There's a lot of work to do, and a lot of blame to spread around. Perhaps from that crap, something worthwhile will grow. But for now, they just smell putrid.

Chapter 67.3: Choke!

They're done. So here's what I think we're looking at for over the off-season:

I don't know the contract status of all the guys, but I believe that many current players will be gone. For example, Paul LoDuca is in the final year of his contract, and unless he's willing to take a shorter-term contract than I suspet he wants, I'd say it's time to wish him well. And keep Ramon Castro.

Carlos Delgado looks done to me. His bat's slower and he just doesn't look right. Perhaps we'll learn he was hurt all year or something, but I fear he's simply on the downside of his career.

Luis Castillo: keep him -- or if necessary, re-sign him. He's been a solid pickup, and I'd like to see what he can do in a full season.

Jose Reyes: There's something going on. I don't know what it is, but his mind is not on baseball. He's still an electrifying player. But something went wrong and the Mets need him to be on his game again.

David Wright: More and more, he's become THE star of the team. He obviously remains and I believe he'll improve.

OF: Moises, the Mets have an option for $7.5 million, take it and sign him. Beltran, another quiet but successful season. Milledge: trade him. Get some pitching. His attitude and histrionics are a problem. But he has value. Get some pitching.

Pitching is the problem. Pedro is still worth keeping, Glavine is a big question mark. It's up to him whether he plays, but I think he's only going to be a Met. If he chooses to, then he's worth some amount as a back-end starter. But I think it's time for him to retire. John Maine is still a valuable player, I'm not sure about Oliver Perez, but he's probably ok. El Duque is done. He's unable to sustain himself for a full season. Mike Pelfrey, I just don't know. If he gets packaged in a deal for a front-line pitcher, I'd not complain. Philip Humber, he's got potential and I'd like to see what he can do.

The bullpen, however, is where wholesale changes must occur. Billy Wagner is still the closer. Aaron Heilman I think I'd trade. He wants to be a starter, trade him for a starter or a couple decent middle relievers (or maybe a first baseman). Pedro Feliciano? What happened?! I'd keep him, but my leash isn't long for him. Joe Smith. Who cares? Frankly, at this point. Now that those last outs have occurred, I'm not sure which of them I care about. The 2007 Mets have earned their spot in history -- as the biggest chokers of all time!