Football is back, yo

 My preview of this AFL season with some ladder predictions.

The clear favourite
No one is doing what Collingwood is doing right now. You can't go past the Pies as the clear Premiership favourite. They cleared out some experience and some dead wood over the summer, but kept the Premiership 22 together. It also opened up some salary cap room, which had been tight thanks to the recruitment of Darren Jolly and Luke Ball. Recruiting Krakouer was brilliant, same with Tarrant. Krak has matured as a man and a player after spending 16 months in jail for assault. He is grasping the second chance with both hands. It's great to watch. In terms of the rest of the team, the coaches have focused on making sure they don't get complacent. It looks to be working so far. The Pies didn't need to win the preseason comp. Most senior players only played two preseason games. They won it because they were clearly better than everyone else.

The top three
Despite the Essendon game, the Western Bulldogs will still finish top four. They have pace, depth and talent. There are always aberrant results in round one that you look back on with disbelief at the end of the season. St Kilda are still strong, as are Geelong, but I get the feeling that they could both struggle a bit this season. They've got the miles in the legs and the skills... but Geelong have lost some quality, and St Kilda lack a decent bottom six or any depth. One of these two teams could well finish eighth or ninth, with a bad run of injuries and luck.

The next three
Carlton, Fremantle and Hawthorn - they should all be here. There are no excuses for these teams. They have the personnel and the time to put their gameplans together. The big issue for Carlton is how important young Kreuzer is to their team. It was all over for the Blues when he went down last year. The other problem is the stupidity of Jarrad Waite. At 27 he should be a dominant key position player. Instead, he should have been suspended for kicking a player in the nuts (how he got off that charge is a mystery). Hawthorn need a big season from Buddy Franklin and for the rest of the team to stay injury free. Freo have had a shocking run of injuries and at the moment look the most likely to drop out of the eight. Which is sad, because it would have been nice to see the Dockers go on with it.

The chasers
One finals spot, a bunch of teams chasing it. Essendon and Adelaide are the clear standouts at the moment. Adelaide have recruited well with Tambling off half back, and Dangerfield looks an absolute gun. Essendon look amazing at the moment, but it's hard to tell if that's just the extra month's fitness they have on everyone. Will they die in the arse? (Yes, a lovely Australian term). North Melbourne could do anything, as could Melbourne. They each have some talent but need the gameplan to come together. Sydney lost Kirk, but Goodes is as amazing as ever. This is a real mixed bag of even teams and it's hard to know who will sneak into September.

The bottom five
Richmond are the best of the rest. Riewoldt would be the main goal threat for any team in the league. He is that much of a gun. Taller than his cousin Nick, more mobile than Chris Dawes, and a better kick than Travis Cloke. More durable than Jonathan Brown at the moment too. Port Adelaide... who knows. They won a bunch of games at the end of last season, but they seem to lack talent. They will win a few at home though. West Coast will rebuild this year, but losing Mark LeCras will hurt. The club needs some serious work on its playing list, and perhaps John Worsfold isn't the man to do that job. The Gold Coast Suns will win a few games, definitely. They have an amazing collection of young talent. They grabbed the best players from two years worth of drafts - guys like Swallow, Toy and Maverick Weller. Brisbane is a car crash. Now they've lost their best player - Brown - for months with facial surgery. Black and Power will do what they can, but 2011 is basically a writeoff.


To end this preview: some pics of Miranda Kerr in a Collingwood jumper :)