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Sunday, June 20, 2010

Gary and LeBron

Mike asked for some NBA coverage. Unfortunately I don't work next door to my house anymore so I've missed seeing most of the finals series. Disappointing yes. I think I was going for the Celtics, but only because I don't really like Kobe. I respect Kobe. But I don't like Kobe. So sadly, LA won, the Cavs didn't, and that means LeBron James is off somewhere.

Bill Simmons did a really really really good job of looking at where LeBron should go. He tipped Chicago. It's a good choice. He'd have Derrick Rose (a scoring machine) and Joakim Noah (athletic big man) alongside him. It's a huge media market, and he was a Bulls fan growing up.

Others have suggested New York, and there are pros and cons.
Pros: LeBron could be the man to end decades of pain and bring a title to New York.
Cons: It's New York. They are useless. Organisationally. LeBron would most likely get stuck in crap teams and never achieve that greatness a ring brings.

Chicago is a better choice, but there is a huge shadow there. Michael Jordan. Whatever LeBron does will be compared to MJ. That said, perhaps he's actually good enough to handle it.

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Another superstar could be on the move - Gary Ablett. Should he stay at Geelong or go to the Gold Coast? Let's have a look at the options.

In purely monetary terms, it's a no brainer. He's been on about $500,000 a year with Geelong - well below his market value. Gold Coast are prepared to offer him something like $1.5 million a season, while Geelong can only go up to $1 million due to their excellent list. If you knew that you could only earn big money for another seven or eight years, what would you choose? He could sign a five year deal worth $7.5 million. That's not small money. And it doesn't include endorsements and prize money he might win.

What about the football? Geelong is an amazing team. Fast, skilfull, dominant. It probably has about two more years at this peak, and then another three years as a top four side. That would probably mean two more flags in the next five years for Ablett.

The Gold Coast is a brand new team. It will be based on uncontracted stars, recycled players, and, crucially, massive draft concessions. This is a big deal. Ablett at the Gold Coast would get to work with 17-18 of the best young footballers in Australia. He could mould them, lead them, and show them what it takes to win a premiership. This story from the Herald Sun was a bit over the top, but the message is clear - this new team has been handed a HUGE chance.

Consider the names if the Gold Coast had been able to take their pick of players from the 2008 and 2009 drafts: Steele Sidebottom, Nic Natanui, Jack Watts, Dayne Beams, Daniel Rich, Dustin Martin, Jack Trengrove, Tom Scully, Stephen Hill, Anthony Morabito... FRICK. Give that team two years and they will be playing finals. Put Ablett in there and they would gun.

I used to deal with one of the Gold Coast draftees - Maverick Weller. Yes, his name it's Maverick, and yes, it's awesome. He was a nice kid, very very quick, and he made his senior debut for Burnie in the NTFL a couple of weeks after his 15th birthday. He got taken by the Gold Coast a year early, so he didn't actually go into the main draft. If he had, I believe he would have been Tasmania's first midfielder taken in the top 6 since... well I don't know who. What I'm getting at is this: the Gold Coast squad is packed with these sort of players.

Gary Ablett has won two premierships, a Brownlow, a Norm Smith medal, and club best and fairests. He is already a legend at Geelong. What more can he do there?? Add a couple more medals? He has been very very good to Geelong. They signed him to a long term deal very young, meaning he earned less than half his market worth for years. He is massive for them in marketing terms. He helped break the premiership drought.

Ablett owes Geelong nothing.

He could go to the Gold Coast, earn much much much more and take a fantastic group of players to a premiership. But does he want to? Good question.

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