Chapter 59: The 2007 Season

Finally, the season is beginning. Tonight, the Mets take on the World Champion Cardinals in a rematch of last year’s NLCS. And without further adieu, here are my thoughts about which teams will be playing whom in the playoffs when October baseball begins again.

NL East:
Jimmy Rollins is right about one thing, the Phillies are going to be right in the heart of things. Their starting rotation has depth and they’ve got a lot of power in the lineup, most obviously the 2006 MVP Ryan Howard. But they’re much more than just him. Chase Utley is a solid ballplayer and potential MVP candidate himself. They signed Freddy Garcia to join a solid staff with Brett Myers, Adam Eaton, and especially Cole Hamels.

Of course, the Mets are the team to beat. They have a lineup that is tough to beat. What concerns me is the pitching – specifically the starting rotation. I’m fine with Glavine, but he’s going to the Hall of Fame as the best #2 starter in history. From his days with the Braves and his better years with the Mets, he’s been strongest as the second starter – behind Greg Maddux, behind John Smoltz, and behind Pedro Martinez. He’ll work hard to pitch as well as he can and the team will rally behind him, and it’s possible that he’s a better #1 than two-thirds of the other starters out there, and he’ll always pitch his heart out. For six innings. And he’s probably the strongest starter on the Mets, with the possible exception of John Maine. To me, Maine is the key for the 2007 season, if he pitches as well as I think he can, then the Mets will be fine. If he falls on his face, they’ve got a lot of problems.

The Braves don’t have the horses in the staff, and I foresee the Marlins having some growing pains. Behind Dontrelle Willis, their staff is more potential than proven ability. Anibal Sanchez threw a no-hitter last year, but that’s one game. The Marlins could end up winning the division, but I really don’t think they’ll do better than third place – if that. The Nationals are simply awful, and that’s all I’ll say about them.

In the Central, I think the Astros have regained their stride. After Roy Oswalt, they have Jason Jennings, and while Woody Williams may be on the downside of his career, he should still be capable of 10-12 wins. And their lineup (especially in their ballpark) has a lot of power. Carlos Lee should find the stadium to his liking and Lance Berkman now has a true bat to protect him in the lineup. Craig Biggio is now a nice complementary player at best, and Morgan Ensberg needs to prove that he wasn’t just a flash in the pan.

Of course, the Cardinals come in as the defending champs, but I find it hard to believe that they can even make the playoffs with Adam Wainright and Braden Looper in their starting rotation. The Cubs? I’d love to see them take the division, which really seems up for grabs. While their lineup appears strong – especially if Derek Lee stays healthy – they need to maintain a strong starting staff in order to truly compete. The team that could possible slip past and surprise people in this division is the Milwaukee Brewers. They have some decent starting pitching. If Ben Sheets remains healthy – and Chris Capuano, Jeff Suppan, and Dave Bush behind him – then their young hitters like Rickie Weeks, Bill Hall, and perhaps even the aging Geoff Jenkins might help propel this team into a serious playoff run.

In the West, the division seems wide open. The Dodgers have the strongest looking staff, and the Padres’ is good too, even if they’re counting on David Wells for 10 or so wins. The team that leaves me confused is San Francisco. They have the overpaid but talented Barry Zito, and if he pitches as well as he’s capable, he might be enough to keep the team in contention. And Zito isn’t alone. Matt Cain will either be a stud or a dud; I don’t see him as a .500 pitcher. Noah Lowry on the other hand may very well be exactly that. Perhaps Matt Morris will regain his stature, but I think he’s a bad-end-of-the-rotation guy now (see also Steve Trachsel). But the rest of that team is simply getting old, and I don’t think they can hold off the Dodgers or the Padres, and the Diamondbacks have the potential to jump into the fray. I doubt the Rockies have much of anything, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Clint Hurdle ended up looking for a broadcasting gig before the season ends.

AL
In the East, the Yankees start the season with Carl Pavano on the mound. Who’da thunk it? That won’t last forever, of course, and he’ll be on the DL eventually and when he falls by the wayside, we’ll probably see someone like young Phil Hughes get called up to join the aging veterans Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina, who are both still capable of keeping their team in the thick of the pennant race. I like what the Red Sox have done with their staff, and it might be enough to catapult them ahead of their perennial rivals from the Bronx, but if not, I think they’ll still be in the playoffs. I’m confused by what the Devil Rays have done in the off season. The Japanese third baseman is supposedly adjusting well, and they’re going with BJ Upton rather than Jorge Cantu, who had been the subject of trade rumors over the off season. Seems like they should have traded Cantu, since they’ve sent him to the minors. His value is probably plummeting as I type. The Orioles could be the feel-good story of the season. If I'm to believe what I read, the pitchers there are starting to gell under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone, but any staff that has Steve Trachsel, who will unfortunately be more remembered in New York for his poor playoff performance than the years of sturdy pitching he gave the franchise.

In the Central, the more I look at the Twins, the less I like them. After Johan Santana, I don’t have much faith in their pitchers. Can anyone expect 15 wins from a pitcher named Boof? Matt Garza went to AAA with a chip on his shoulder, so let’s see what he brings back with him to the majors when he eventually gets recalled. The White Sox still have capable pitchers and their hitting’s not bad.

As for the AL champion Tigers, however, I think they’ll remain in the thick of the division throughout the season, but a lot will depend on whether Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, and Nate Robertson come anywhere close to what they showed last year. Their entire season will fall on the shoulders of their starting pitchers.

The AL West should be the most exciting off all. The Angels have shown lots of improvement, and the A’s still have a few good horses in their staff. The Rangers are improved, and while I can’t base it on anything concrete, I think they’ve found a strong manager in Ron Washington. Willie Randolph showed that strong coaches can become strong managers; let’s see if Washington has what I think he has.

My predictions:
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Astros
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Mets

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Angels
Wildcard: Yankees

Division series:
NL, Mets beat Astros
Phillies beat Dodgers

AL, White Sox beat Red Sox
Angels beat Yankees

Championship Series
NL: Phillies beat Mets
AL: Angels beat White Sox

World Series:
White Sox beat Phillies