Chapter 30.2: Premature Prediction

I know it's more than six weeks before the voluntary report date for Mets pitchers and catchers, but I'm going to toss out a couple predictions. First: Carlos Beltran will be a Met. I didn't think this was possible weeks ago, but with the apparent acquisition of Randy Johnson, the Yankees might not be able to afford yet another astronomical salary and source of future luxury taxes, so I think they'll pass on Beltran. Perhaps they've already got too many Boras clients (considering Kevin Brown, Bernie Williams and probably other obvious ones I'm forgetting). But they paid about $25 million in luxury tax last year, which is more than what the Tampa Bay Devil Rays paid their entire roster. With the addition of the Big Unit and the increased percentage they know they'll be liable for, the likelihood of structuring a contract with Beltran that alleviates their problem is low.



The Mets reportedly offered Beltran $100 million over six years, which is about $4 million more than the reported offer by the Houston Astros, where Beltran finished the 2004 season. I think the Mets offer will go up, but at this point who are they bidding against?



Second: Pedro Martinez will win his 200th game. That's a bold prediction because he's 18 away right now. With Beltran, however, I think the entire lineup will be better. I expect the Mets to sign John Olerud to stabilize the infield if they get Beltran. They needed a big bopper out of one of their remaining holes, which Beltran would achieve. Olerud's older now than in his hey day, but if all he can do is hit .245 and play his usual excellent first base, then he's worth it. Bat him seventh if we have to.



Third: Tom Glavine will be the comeback player of the year. Harder one to achieve, because he wasn't bad for the first half of 2004. He was an all-star, after all, and he didn't have to be picked; Mike Piazza was voted onto the team. My point is that with Pedro manning the ace slot, Glavine will face slightly lower caliber pitchers, have an improved infield and outfield defense behind him, and is smart enough to overcome what he may be losing in velocity. I think between Pedro and Glavine the Mets should get 34-35 wins. I hope you can tack on another 12-15 each out of Benson, Trachsel, and even Zambrano. Conservatively that's 70 wins. It's not great, and even with another 15 potential wins out of the bullpen, you're not talking a likely playoff team. But it's an improvement.



I think three predictions is fair for now, except to say that I think third is where they're going to end up. Could the revamped Mets contend for a wild card? Yes, with Beltran. In fact all these predictions are assuming Beltran is a Met. That hasn't happened yet. But it's nice to dream.